Over the past decade of NFL drafts (2015–2024), the first round has produced its share of disappointments and gems. Below we break down the most notable busts (first-rounders who fell far short of expectations) and steals (first-rounders who greatly outperformed their draft slot). Each player’s draft position, expectations, career trajectory, and impact on their team are detailed for easy comparison. A summary table is also provided for quick reference.

These first-round picks came into the league with high expectations but failed to deliver. (Ranked #1 being the most significant bust.)

Expectations: The 49ers traded three first-round picks to move up and draft Lance third overall, viewing him as a future franchise quarterback with rare athletic tools. Despite limited college experience at North Dakota State, he was expected to sit behind a veteran for a year and then blossom into an elite dual-threat QB.

Career Trajectory: Lance started just 4 games in two seasons, struggling to stay on the field (he suffered a season-ending ankle injury in his second start). He never seized the starting job, and by 2023 the 49ers relegated him to third-string. After only 8 total game appearances and 5 touchdowns in San Francisco, Lance was traded away for a 4th-round pick. His brief 49ers stint – the fewest games played by any top-5 pick for his drafting team in the common era – fell disastrously short of what a top-three pick should provide.

Impact on Team: San Francisco’s all-in gamble on Lance turned into “an absolute disaster” from the team’s perspective. The 49ers had sacrificed enormous draft capital, only to get no return on a supposed cornerstone. Fortunately for the 49ers, strong overall roster talent still carried them to deep playoff runs despite this miss. But the Lance whiff (and the fact that six of the next ten picks became Pro Bowlers) will haunt as one of the worst draft trades in NFL history.

Expectations: A prototypical pocket passer from UCLA, Rosen was touted as one of 2018’s most NFL-ready QBs. Arizona traded up to draft him in the top 10, envisioning him as their franchise quarterback for the next decade. Rosen himself brashly declared “there were nine mistakes ahead of me” on draft night – a sign of his confidence.

Career Trajectory: Rosen’s career flamed out almost immediately. Thrust into a bad Cardinals offense, he went 3–10 as a rookie with 11 TDs vs 14 INTs. Arizona gave up on him after one year, drafting Kyler Murray to replace him. Rosen was traded in 2019 and thereafter bounced among five other teams (often as a third-stringer). He never developed any traction as a pro, throwing just 12 touchdowns in 24 games and posting a career 61.1 passer rating. As Sporting News put it, “His career pretty much was done before it ever got started,” making that Cardinals pick a completely wasted pick.

Impact on Team: The Cardinals’ Rosen experiment was a quick flop. Arizona burned a first-round pick (and a third-rounder in the trade up) only to replace Rosen immediately in 2019. This bust set the franchise back at QB for a year, though to their credit they cut losses and found a new QB in Murray. Rosen is now commonly listed among the NFL’s biggest draft busts, exemplifying how a “highly touted” prospect can fall flat with seven teams in five years and no success to show.

Expectations: Wilson rocketed up draft boards after a dazzling junior year at BYU, drawing pre-draft comparisons to Aaron Rodgers for his arm talent and off-platform throws. The Jets made him the No. 2 pick to be their long-awaited franchise signal-caller, handing him the starting job as a rookie. Hopes were sky-high that Wilson’s playmaking would finally stabilize the QB position in New York.

Career Trajectory: In two seasons with the Jets, Wilson’s play was consistently poor. He went 8–14 as a starter with 23 TDs vs 25 INTs, completing only 55.2% of his passes. He struggled reading defenses and often “looked lost on the football field”. By Year 2 he was benched multiple times, and the team brought in a veteran (Aaron Rodgers) to replace him. Wilson was only starting in 2023 due to Rodgers’ injury, and continued to perform poorly. After the 2023 season, the Jets traded Wilson away for a mere late-round pick swap

Impact on Team: Few busts hurt as much as a quarterback miss at No. 2 overall. Wilson’s failures “set the franchise back years”. The Jets cycled through coaches and lost games as Wilson’s development stalled the offense. His demotion just 2½ years into his tenure officially marked him as one of the biggest busts of the decade. New York was forced to reset yet again at QB, and Wilson ranks among the Jets’ worst first-round picks ever (his 12–21 record and sub-60 passer rating place him near Vernon Gholston in team lore).

Expectations: The Bears drafted White after a monster season at West Virginia, envisioning a 6'3" game-breaking receiver to pair with Alshon Jeffery. Taken seventh in a talented 2015 WR class, White was expected to immediately produce like a top-flight No. 1 receiver with his size (6'3"), speed (4.35 s 40) and college dominance.

Career Trajectory: White’s career was decimated by injuries and ultimately non-productive. He missed his entire rookie year with a shin fracture, then played only 5 games in 2016 before another season-ending leg injury. In total, over five NFL seasons, White appeared in just 27 games and logged 28 receptions for 397 yards and 0 touchdowns. Despite being healthy enough to play in 2018, he never earned a significant role and was released after his rookie contract. As an SI analysis put it, he “still never produced” even once recovered from the injuries. White himself admitted he “got dealt bust cards,” reflecting on the string of misfortune.

Impact on Team: White has been labeled the Bears’ “No. 1 draft bust since the turn of the century” for Chicago. The Bears received virtually zero from a top-10 pick: White’s Bears tenure ended with only 25 catches and 285 yards in a Chicago uniform. This void at the receiver position hampered the Bears’ offense in those years, and the team cycled through other receivers to try to fill the gap. Chicago declined White’s 5th-year option, a move emblematic of a pick that completely failed to meet its promise.

Expectations: The Raiders made a shocking reach by taking Ferrell at #4 – a slot where elite pass-rushers like Khalil Mack or Von Miller typically go. Ferrell was a productive Clemson defensive end (a team captain on a national title squad), but most experts graded him as a late first-round talent. Oakland’s front office ignored consensus and picked him top-5, banking on his intangibles and collegiate pedigree to turn him into a cornerstone edge defender.

Career Trajectory: Ferrell never came close to justifying that draft slot. He was forced into a starting role as a rookie due to his draft status, but managed only 4.5 sacks in Year 1. Over four seasons with the Raiders he recorded a modest 10.0 sacks total and eventually lost his starting job by his third year. By 2021, he was playing limited snaps, and the Raiders declined his fifth-year option. Ferrell became a rotational lineman and left Las Vegas after four underwhelming years (now a role player in San Francisco). In hindsight, scouts’ pre-draft concerns proved valid – he lacked an elite first step to beat NFL tackles and wasn’t strong enough to dominate against the run.

Impact on Team: This pick is widely viewed as one of the Raiders’ worst in recent memory. Taking Ferrell so high was a major draft mis-evaluation – even the team had two later first-rounders in 2019 and likely “could have still drafted Ferrell later in the round”. The miss left the Raiders without the impact pass-rusher they badly needed (especially glaring since they had traded Khalil Mack the year before). Las Vegas’ defense continued to struggle, and Ferrell’s flop contributed to the Raiders’ reputation for poor drafting in the late 2010s.

Expectations: In 2017, the Bears made a bold move up to the second pick to take Trubisky, betting on his one year as UNC’s starter and prototypical tools (6'2", athletic, accurate in college). He was the first QB off the board in a class that included Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, and Chicago’s front office believed Trubisky was the safest, most NFL-ready QB of the bunch. The expectation was that he’d develop into a top-tier franchise quarterback to finally stabilize the Bears’ offense for the long term.

Career Trajectory: Trubisky had an up-and-down tenure in Chicago. He started 50 games over four years and even made the Pro Bowl in 2018 (after leading the Bears to an 11–3 record as a starter). However, his overall performance was average at best (64 career TDs, 38 INTs) and regressed in 2019. By 2020 he was benched at one point for Nick Foles. The Bears declined his option and let him walk after his rookie deal. While Trubisky was not as catastrophically bad as some others on this list, he “never lived up to [his] lofty status” as a #2 pick. His Bears stint is often remembered for missed throws and inconsistency, especially given who was drafted after him.

Impact on Team: This is a nuanced case – Trubisky wasn’t a total train wreck (he did log 29 wins and a playoff appearance), so some argue he’s “merely not Mahomes or Watson” rather than a classic bust. However, in context, the Bears’ decision to trade up for Trubisky over two future superstars is regarded as a massive mistake. Chicago ended up back in QB purgatory by 2021, having to draft another first-round QB (Justin Fields) to replace Trubisky. In hindsight, Trubisky is frequently listed among big draft busts because the opportunity cost was Mahomes – a “what if” that will forever hang over the franchise.

Expectations: Ross wowed scouts by setting a 4.22-second 40-yard dash NFL Combine record – the Bengals were enamored and grabbed him in the top 10. Cincinnati envisioned Ross as a field-stretching deep threat to ignite their offense (DeSean Jackson comparisons were common). As the first receiver Cincinnati had taken in the top 10 since A.J. Green, he was expected to make an immediate impact and add a new dimension to the passing game.

Career Trajectory: Ross’s NFL career never took off. He battled multiple injuries (knees, shoulder) and confidence issues from the start. Infamously, on his first NFL touch he fumbled, and things didn’t improve much from there. In four seasons with the Bengals, Ross appeared in only 27 games and tallied just 51 receptions (609 yards, 10 TDs). He had a brief flash early in 2019 (back-to-back 100-yard games) but soon reverted to inconsistency and drops (league-high 23.9% drop rate over his tenure). By 2020, Ross was a healthy scratch for much of the year. Cincinnati let him leave in free agency; he last appeared briefly with the Giants in 2021.

Impact on Team: As a top-10 pick, Ross was a major disappointment for the Bengals. He was “the least reliable receiver in the league” during his span in Cincinnati, catching under 42% of targets – worst in the NFL in that period. The Bengals essentially wasted a premium pick, getting negligible production from Ross while other receivers from his class (e.g. Mike Williams, Cooper Kupp) thrived elsewhere. His bust left Cincinnati lacking a consistent No. 2 receiver to complement A.J. Green in those years. Ross’s blazing speed never translated to NFL success, making him a cautionary tale that a record 40 time alone doesn’t guarantee greatness.

Expectations: Ruggs was the first wide receiver taken in the talent-rich 2020 class, coveted for his elite speed (4.27 s 40). The Raiders drafted him 12th overall hoping he’d be their version of Tyreek Hill – a dynamic deep threat to lift the entire offense. Big-play ability was his calling card at Alabama, and Las Vegas expected Ruggs to force defenses to account for his speed on every play, opening up the field for others.

Career Trajectory: Ruggs showed flashes of potential, but his NFL career was abruptly cut short by an off-field tragedy. On the field, his production in 1½ seasons was modest (50 catches, 921 yards, 4 TDs in 20 games). He was starting to come into his own in 2021, leading the Raiders in receiving through seven games. However, in November 2021 Ruggs was involved in a fatal car crash and charged with DUI resulting in death. The Raiders immediately released him. That incident ended his NFL career after just 20 games.

Impact on Team: This was a catastrophic outcome for the Raiders. Not only did they receive little on-field return from a top-12 pick, but the situation cast a pall over the franchise. The Raiders lost a young starter overnight and endured the public turmoil of the event. Ruggs’ release left a void at receiver, and Las Vegas had essentially no contribution from one of the highest picks of the 2020 draft. In hindsight, the Raiders passed on several other accomplished receivers in that class (e.g. Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson) to take Ruggs. The pick, sadly, will be remembered for the tragic way it ended – making Ruggs a notable bust, albeit due to off-field circumstances beyond just football performance.

Table: First-Round Busts (2015–2024) – Summary

These first-rounders provided exceptional value relative to their draft slot, far outperforming where they were selected. (Listed roughly by impact.)

Why He Was a Steal: Mahomes was the third QB taken in 2017 and fell to the Chiefs at pick 10 after several teams passed on him. Kansas City aggressively traded up from the 27th pick, and it turned out to be the “biggest steal of the draft”. In hindsight, it’s almost unthinkable that he wasn’t the first player chosen.

Outperforming Draft Slot: Mahomes has already built a Hall-of-Fame résumé: 2× NFL MVP, 2× Super Bowl champion, 2× Super Bowl MVP, and the undisputed face of the league. He became the fastest QB to 200 passing TDs and has set numerous records. Simply put, he is a generational talent who should have been a No. 1 overall pick in any draft – getting him at 10 (behind two other QBs) represents tremendous value.

Team Impact: The Chiefs’ bold move in 2017 changed their franchise forever. Mahomes sat one year, then won NFL MVP in his first season as a starter. He’s led Kansas City to five straight AFC title games and two championships. The Chiefs turned a mid-first-round pick into the centerpiece of a dynasty. Multiple teams’ decision to pass on Mahomes is now regarded as an “all-time gaffe”, while Kansas City’s foresight in grabbing him made this one of the greatest draft steals ever.

Why He Was a Steal: Jackson was the 5th quarterback drafted in 2018 – the last pick of the first round – despite winning the Heisman Trophy in college. Many teams doubted his pro QB viability, but Baltimore traded up to #32 and famously nabbed him while other clubs took lesser prospects at other positions. As one analysis noted, “sometimes, a first-round pick can be a steal, especially when you’re the fifth quarterback taken in your class”.

Outperforming Draft Slot: Jackson became an NFL MVP (2019) and one of the most electrifying playmakers in the league. In his first five seasons he’s broken multiple QB rushing records and led the NFL in touchdown passes in his MVP year. He has 2× Pro Bowls and 1× First-Team All-Pro, and is the only quarterback in history to top 1,000 rushing yards in multiple seasons. Few would have imagined the final pick of Round 1 would produce a QB with a “stretch among the best any quarterback in NFL history has ever had” in his first six years.

Team Impact: The Ravens benefited enormously by landing Jackson at 32. By Year 2 he had Baltimore at 14–2 and was unanimously voted MVP. He transformed the Ravens’ offense into a perennial top rushing attack and has made them a “perpetual contender” when healthy. Drafting Jackson so late allowed Baltimore to build around a superstar on a rookie contract – a huge competitive advantage. Passing on Jackson has haunted quarterback-needy teams, while the Ravens’ calculated gamble yielded the steal of the 2018 draft.

Why He Was a Steal: Watt was the fourth edge rusher taken in 2017 and slid to the end of Round 1. The Steelers selecting him at #30 turned out to be a massive bargain – as one report put it, “going 30 picks into the draft is a steal for [a player who would merit] the top five or 10” in a re-draft. In fact, Bleacher Report later named Watt the biggest steal of the entire 2017 first round.

Outperforming Draft Slot: Watt has far exceeded what you expect from pick 30. He earned Defensive Player of the Year (2021) and has been an All-Pro three times. By 2022, Watt tied the NFL single-season sack record (22.5) and amassed 80+ sacks in his first six seasons. He is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, producing at a level of a top-5 pick. TheComeback aptly noted that Watt was “the 2021 NFL DPOY and a steal with the 30th overall pick in 2017”.

Team Impact: Pittsburgh’s defense reaped huge rewards from Watt’s emergence. He became the cornerstone of the Steelers’ pass rush, leading the league in sacks multiple times. The Steelers consistently field a top defense in large part due to Watt’s game-changing ability. Nabbing an elite edge rusher at 30 (when most elite rushers go top 10) provided the Steelers with superstar production at a discount. Watt’s success has helped Pittsburgh remain competitive and is a big reason they have not had a losing season during his tenure.

Why He Was a Steal: Jefferson was the fifth wide receiver off the board in 2020, lasting until pick 22. Many expected him to go a bit earlier, but he slipped amid a historically deep WR class. Vikings GM Rick Spielman “deserves so much credit for stealing the LSU star with the 22nd pick”, as one team reporter put it. Few could have predicted he’d outperform every receiver in his class by such a wide margin.

Outperforming Draft Slot: Jefferson exploded onto the scene with 1,400 receiving yards as a rookie (an NFL rookie record) and has only ascended since. In his first three seasons, he led the NFL in receiving yards (2022) and receptions, earned 3× Pro Bowls and 1× First-Team All-Pro, and won Offensive Player of the Year (2022). He reached 4,000 career yards faster than any player in NFL history. In hindsight, Jefferson has performed like a top-5 pick (or better) – getting that kind of production at 22 is incredible value. He has already become one of the league’s top 2–3 receivers.

Team Impact: Minnesota traded away Stefon Diggs in 2020 and essentially replaced him with Jefferson at a fraction of the cost. Jefferson’s elite play on a rookie deal allowed the Vikings to build their offense around him immediately. He’s been the focal point of Minnesota’s passing attack, helping the team to multiple playoff appearances. By year 3, he broke the Vikings’ single-season receiving record. Securing a superstar WR outside the top 20 picks was a franchise-altering boon – especially as several receivers drafted ahead of him (like Henry Ruggs and Jalen Reagor) struggled, magnifying how much of a steal Jefferson was.

Why He Was a Steal: Parsons was a highly regarded prospect, but concerns (he opted out of 2020, and some off-field rumors) caused him to fall out of the top 10. Dallas, picking at 12 after a trade down, capitalized on his slide. As Sports Illustrated noted, “it’s crazy to say given how high he was drafted, but Parsons was still an absolute steal as the 12th overall pick”. In a redraft of 2021, Parsons would likely go in the top three.

Outperforming Draft Slot: Parsons won Defensive Rookie of the Year (2021) unanimously and has been a First-Team All-Pro in each of his first two seasons. He notched 13 sacks as a rookie and has drawn comparisons to Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor for his immediate impact. Parsons’ rare ability to dominate as both an off-ball linebacker and edge rusher makes him one of the NFL’s most valuable defensive players. By year two, he was runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year. Getting a caliber of player who “comes along once in a blue moon” at pick 12 is remarkable.

Team Impact: Parsons transformed the Cowboys’ defense overnight. Dallas went from a struggling unit to a top-5 defense once he arrived, thanks to his pass-rush and playmaking. He’s become the centerpiece of Dan Quinn’s defense, capable of wrecking game plans weekly. The Cowboys have led the league in takeaways and pressure rates in part due to Parsons. His rookie-contract production (All-Pro level for mid-first salary) gave Dallas huge surplus value. Parsons is arguably the best defender the Cowboys have had since the 1990s – landing him at 12 was franchise-changing.

Why He Was a Steal: Tunsil was projected as a top-5 pick (even No. 1 overall) before a notorious draft-night incident (a leaked video of him with a gas-mask bong) caused him to free-fall. Miami stopped his slide at pick 13. For the Dolphins to get an elite left tackle talent outside the top 10 was tremendous value – something unfathomable until that unexpected slide.

Outperforming Draft Slot: Tunsil quickly proved his worth. He became a high-level starter by Year 2 and has since been named to 4× Pro Bowls. He developed into one of the premier pass-blocking left tackles in the league. Miami eventually traded him to Houston for a king’s ransom of draft picks, underscoring his value. In Houston, Tunsil twice earned the title of highest-paid tackle in the NFL and continues to play at an All-Pro caliber. A talent of his caliber (arguably the best left tackle from the 2016 class) usually goes top 5, so Miami drafting him mid-first was extremely fortuitous.

Team Impact: The Dolphins benefited by solidifying their O-line with Tunsil protecting the blind side for three seasons. The bigger impact was the haul they got by trading him in 2019 – Miami received two first-round picks and a second-rounder from Houston, which they used to jump-start a rebuild. Those picks turned into multiple quality starters (including WR Jaylen Waddle). In essence, grabbing Tunsil at 13 not only gave the Dolphins a Pro Bowl tackle, but later facilitated one of the most impactful trades in recent memory. It all traced back to Miami wisely pouncing on a steal when Tunsil unexpectedly fell into their lap.

Why He Was a Steal: Peters was a top talent at cornerback in 2015 but had some character concerns coming out of Washington (he was dismissed from his college team). That caused him to fall to the middle of Round 1. The Chiefs took a chance at pick 18, and it paid off immediately. Getting a player of Peters’ talent outside the top 15 was a coup – he had top-10 ability but wasn’t picked there.

Outperforming Draft Slot: Peters was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (2015) and led the league in interceptions as a rookie with 8 INTs. He made First-Team All-Pro in his second season and has been a 3× Pro Bowler. Peters’ knack for takeaways (30 career interceptions through 2022) is exceptional. His ball-hawking skills and early production (19 INTs in first three seasons) put him on a historic pace. For the 18th pick to turn into one of the league’s top playmaking corners and an All-Pro by Year 2 is a clear outperformance of draft slot.

Team Impact: Peters gave Kansas City a shutdown corner and instant impact in the secondary, boosting a defense that helped the Chiefs make consecutive playoff appearances. His 8 interceptions and 2 TDs in his rookie year were critical in KC’s 11-game win streak and playoff run. Although he was later traded (netting the Chiefs valuable picks), even those subsequent moves trace to the value he provided. Peters’ success also exemplified the reward of taking a calculated risk on a falling prospect – the Chiefs got a top-tier corner without a top-tier pick. He remains one of the best first-round picks of 2015, despite being the sixth defensive back selected.

Why He Was a Steal: Wirfs was one of four highly rated offensive tackles in the 2020 class. Surprisingly, he was the fourth OT off the board, sliding to the Buccaneers at 13 after three other tackles went in the top 11. Many analysts had Wirfs as a top-10 talent (if not top-5), so for Tampa Bay to land him outside the top 12 was excellent value – especially since they needed to protect newly acquired Tom Brady.

Outperforming Draft Slot: Wirfs immediately became an elite right tackle. As a rookie, he started every game and gave up only one sack all season, anchoring the Bucs’ line on their way to a Super Bowl victory. He was named First-Team All-Pro in his second season (2021). His combination of athleticism and power has made him one of the best tackles in the NFL by age 24. In a re-draft, Wirfs would likely be a top-5 pick given his performance. Getting an All-Pro tackle at 13 – rather than spending a top-5 pick – represents tremendous surplus value.

Team Impact: Wirfs solidified Tampa’s offensive line, which was crucial in their 2020 championship run. With his stellar pass protection, Brady was sacked at a significantly lower rate, and the Bucs offense thrived. He has been a plug-and-play cornerstone, allowing the team stability at a premium position on a cheap rookie deal. The three OTs selected before Wirfs have been decent (some Pro Bowls among them), but Wirfs has a strong case as the best of the bunch. Tampa Bay leveraging pick 13 into a championship-caliber tackle greatly enabled their Super Bowl push and sustained success.

Table: First-Round Steals (2015–2024) – Summary

So, what have we learned from looking back at a decade of NFL first rounds (2015-2024)? Mainly, that draft night is one heck of a gamble. This period gave us plenty of proof, showcasing both the spectacular flameouts – the busts – and the absolute game-changers teams stumbled upon – the steals.

When teams whiffed, especially on those high-pick quarterbacks like Trey Lance, Josh Rosen, or Zach Wilson, it wasn't just a missed opportunity. It was often a franchise-altering gut punch, setting offenses back years and forcing painful resets. Whether it was injuries, bad scouting, off-field disasters, or just a player not hacking it in the pros, these busts are stark reminders of how easily hype can evaporate and how much hangs on getting that top pick right.

But then there are the steals – finding guys like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson after other teams passed, or landing defensive titans like T.J. Watt and Justin Jefferson way later than their talent deserved. These weren't just good picks; they were lottery wins. Getting MVP-level players or cornerstone defenders outside the top few selections, often on cheaper rookie deals, can slingshot a team into contention. Landing that guy changes everything.

Ultimately, the wild swings between first-round busts and steals over the last ten years tell the story: the NFL Draft is where fortunes are made and lost. It takes sharp scouting, sure, but also guts, maybe a bit of luck, and the foresight to see what others miss. Those Day 1 decisions create legends or leave fans wondering "what if?" for years, keeping us all glued to the draft, year after year.