Introduction#

The NFL offseason is a whirlwind of speculation, player movement, and coaching changes. While the real action doesn't start until September, the betting markets are already buzzing, offering futures odds on everything from the next Super Bowl champion to individual award winners. For savvy fans and bettors, this preseason period presents a unique opportunity. Odds are based largely on projections, offseason narratives, and last year's results – not concrete on-field performance. This creates inefficiencies and potential value for those who can look beyond the headlines and analyze the underlying factors.

This report dives deep into the current NFL preseason betting landscape for the 2025 season. We'll break down the major markets, identify potential value bets where the odds might not reflect true probabilities, analyze how key offseason moves are shaping the lines, and provide context from historical trends. Whether you're a casual fan curious about your team's chances or a serious bettor hunting for an edge, this analysis aims to equip you with the insights needed to navigate the preseason odds market effectively.

Major storylines influencing this year's odds include significant coaching changes in Chicago, New England, Las Vegas, New York (Jets), New Orleans, and Dallas, blockbuster trades sending WR DK Metcalf to Pittsburgh and WR Deebo Samuel to Washington, the Seahawks acquiring QB Sam Darnold after trading Geno Smith, the Jets signing QB Justin Fields, and massive contract extensions for stars like Josh Allen, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.

Betting 101: A Quick Guide for Newcomers#

Before we dive into specific odds, let's cover some basic betting terminology and how to read the numbers.

Moneyline: This is the simplest bet – you're just picking which team will win the game outright. Odds are presented with a plus (+) or minus (-) sign.
Minus Sign (-): Indicates the favorite. The number shows how much you need to bet to win $100. Example: Chiefs -125 means you bet $125 to win $100 (total payout $225).
Plus Sign (+): Indicates the underdog. The number shows how much you win for every $100 you bet. Example: Eagles +105 means you bet $100 to win $105 (total payout $205).
Point Spread: This bet involves the margin of victory. The favorite (-) must win by more than the spread number, while the underdog (+) can win outright or lose by less than the spread number. Often includes a ".5" to avoid ties (pushes). The odds next to the spread (usually around -110) indicate the price of the bet (bet $110 to win $100).
Over/Under (Total): You bet on whether the combined score of both teams will be higher (Over) or lower (Under) than the total number set by the sportsbook. Like the spread, the odds are typically around -110.
Futures: These are bets on outcomes that will be decided in the future, such as who wins the Super Bowl, a division title, or an MVP award. The odds are usually presented in moneyline format.
Prop Bets (Propositions): Wagers on specific occurrences within a game that aren't directly tied to the final outcome. Examples include a player's total passing yards (Over/Under) or whether a specific player will score a touchdown.

Odds Formats:

American Odds (Moneyline): Explained above (+150, -200). This is the most common format in the US.
Fractional Odds: Often seen in UK markets or horse racing (e.g., 5/1). Means you win $5 for every $1 wagered, plus your original stake back.
Decimal Odds: Common in Europe and Canada (e.g., 2.50). This number represents the total payout (including stake) for every $1 wagered. A $100 bet at 2.50 odds returns $250 ($150 profit + $100 stake).

Understanding implied probability is also key. Odds represent the sportsbook's assessment of likelihood. For example, +100 odds imply a 50% probability, +200 implies 33.3%, and -110 implies 52.4%. Finding value means identifying bets where you believe the true probability is higher than the implied probability suggested by the odds.

Super Bowl LX Odds: The Race for the Lombardi#

(Odds sourced primarily from DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel as of early-mid April 2025, check current lines before betting)

The quest for Super Bowl LX is underway, and the early odds board reflects both recent success and offseason optimism.

The Top Contenders:

Team	Best Odds	Implied Probability	Key Factors
Philadelphia Eagles	+650	13.3%	Reigning champs, Saquon Barkley OPOY campaign, strong roster
Baltimore Ravens	+700	12.5%	Lamar Jackson MVP favorite, added Derrick Henry, strong defense
Buffalo Bills	+700	12.5%	Josh Allen reigning MVP, consistent contenders, added weapons (Palmer, Bosa)
Kansas City Chiefs	+700	12.5%	Mahomes factor, 3 straight SB appearances, OL concerns addressed?
Detroit Lions	+800	11.1%	NFC runner-up, potent offense, lost key coordinators/players (Davis, Z. Smith) but added Reed
Washington Commanders	+1600	5.9%	Jayden Daniels ROY season, aggressive offseason (traded for Deebo Samuel, Laremy Tunsil)
Cincinnati Bengals	+1800	5.3%	Burrow returns healthy, elite WR duo extended (Chase, Higgins)
San Francisco 49ers	+1600	5.9%	Missed playoffs, lost key players (Deebo, Greenlaw, Hargrave, etc.), uncertainty
Los Angeles Rams	+2200	4.3%	Stafford returns, strong draft capital, added Davante Adams
Green Bay Packers	+2200	4.3%	Jordan Love emergence, young roster, added Banks, Hobbs, Hardman

Value Bets:

Washington Commanders (+1600 to +1900): After a stunning run to the NFC Championship game led by Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels, the Commanders were aggressive this offseason. Trading for WR Deebo Samuel and LT Laremy Tunsil signals a clear "win-now" mentality. With Daniels on a rookie contract, they have a window. If he avoids a sophomore slump and the defense improves via the draft, these odds could shorten considerably.
Cincinnati Bengals (+1800 to +2200): Health is the key here. Joe Burrow won Comeback Player of the Year in 2024 but the team missed the playoffs. They locked up their elite receiving duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins long-term. If Burrow stays healthy behind an improved line and the defense bounces back, this team has the firepower to compete with anyone in the AFC. At these odds, they offer value compared to the top tier.

Overvalued Team:

San Francisco 49ers (+1600 to +2000): The market seems slow to react to a tumultuous offseason for the Niners. They missed the playoffs last season, traded away WR Deebo Samuel, and lost key defensive pieces like LB Dre Greenlaw, S Talanoa Hufanga, DL Javon Hargrave, and LB Leonard Floyd. While Brock Purdy remains efficient, relying on him to carry a potentially diminished roster back to Super Bowl contention at these odds feels like a stretch. There are teams with similar or better odds who appear stronger on paper entering 2025.

Historical Context: How often do preseason favorites win? Not as often as you might think. While the game day favorite wins the Super Bowl about 65% of the time, the team with the shortest preseason odds rarely takes home the trophy. Since 1990, only six preseason Super Bowl favorites have actually won it all. Furthermore, 10 of the last 11 Super Bowl champions entered the season with preseason odds of +1200 or shorter, suggesting the winner usually comes from the top group of contenders, but not necessarily the favorite. History favors looking for value among the top 5-10 teams rather than blindly backing the chalk.

Division Futures: Mapping the Path to the Playoffs#

Winning your division guarantees a playoff spot and a home game in the Wild Card round. Let's break down the odds for each division crown.

AFC East

Bills: -250
Dolphins: +475
Patriots: +750
Jets: +1600

Analysis: The Bills remain heavy favorites (-250 implies ~71% probability) seeking their sixth straight division title. They retained Josh Allen with a massive extension and added WR Josh Palmer and EDGE Joey Bosa. Miami (+475) faces questions about regression and Tua Tagovailoa's health. The Patriots (+750) hired Mike Vrabel and added OL help for Drake Maye, but climbing past Buffalo is a tall order. The Jets (+1600) signed QB Justin Fields but are clearly rebuilding under new coach Aaron Glenn.

Value Pick: None. The Bills are appropriately priced as strong favorites.

AFC North

Ravens: -134
Bengals: +215
Steelers: +600
Browns: +3000

Analysis: One of the league's tightest divisions. Baltimore (-134) is the slight favorite after winning the division two years running, boasting the MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and adding Derrick Henry. Cincinnati (+215) is right there if Burrow stays healthy and the WR duo shines. The Browns (+3000) are distant longshots after trading for QB Kenny Pickett and extending Myles Garrett.

Value Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+600). This is the contrarian play. Mike Tomlin's remarkable streak of non-losing seasons continues. They added WR DK Metcalf via trade and still possess a formidable defense led by T.J. Watt. If Kenny Pickett shows improvement or they get competent QB play, +600 offers significant upside in a division known for upsets. At least one team with preseason odds of +400 or longer has won their division in 19 of the last 21 seasons.

AFC South

Texans: +105
Colts: +350
Jaguars: +400
Titans: +800

Analysis: The Texans (+105) are narrow favorites after winning the division in 2023 and 2024. C.J. Stroud looks to bounce back, but they overhauled the O-line and lost OC Bobby Slowik. The Colts (+350) and Jaguars (+400) both sit at 7.5 win totals, suggesting mediocrity. Jacksonville traded for Christian Kirk but needs Trevor Lawrence to return to form. The Titans (+800) were active, adding OT Dan Moore Jr., OG Kevin Zeitler, EDGE Dre'Mont Jones, DL Sebastian Joseph-Day, and LB Cody Barton.

Value Pick: Tennessee Titans (+800). This division feels wide open despite Houston's favorite status. If the Texans' OL changes backfire or the Colts/Jags stagnate, the Titans' offseason additions could make them surprisingly competitive at long odds.

AFC West

Chiefs: -125
Chargers: +325
Broncos: +450
Raiders: +1800

Analysis: The Chiefs (-125) are seeking an unprecedented 10th straight division title. While still favorites, the odds are longer than usual (-200 opening odds), perhaps reflecting OL concerns. The Chargers (+325) brought in Jim Harbaugh, who led a significant turnaround last year (from 5-12 to 11-6), and added RB Najee Harris and EDGE Khalil Mack. The Broncos (+450) have QB questions but a solid roster. The Raiders (+1800) hired Pete Carroll and traded for Geno Smith.

Value Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (+325). Harbaugh's track record is impressive. They pushed the Chiefs close twice last year and made solid additions. If they can finally put it all together and challenge the Chiefs, +325 offers good value compared to KC's -125.

NFC East

Eagles: -140
Commanders: +200
Cowboys: +700
Giants: +3000

Analysis: The Eagles (-140) are strong favorites after winning the Super Bowl. Washington (+200) is the clear second choice following their NFC Championship run and aggressive offseason. The Cowboys (+700) promoted Brian Schottenheimer to HC and face uncertainty after a 7-10 season. The Giants (+3000) appear to be in a full rebuild.

Value Pick: Washington Commanders (+200). While -140 on the Eagles is fair, the Commanders at +200 present the only realistic challenge. If Daniels continues his ascent and the new pieces mesh, they could push Philadelphia. The +700 on Dallas doesn't feel like enough compensation for their question marks.

NFC North

Lions: +135
Packers: +240
Vikings: +500
Bears: +500

Analysis: A competitive division. The Lions (+135) are slight favorites after reaching the NFC Championship, but lost both coordinators. Green Bay (+240) looks strong with Jordan Love and key additions. The Vikings (+500) face uncertainty with QB J.J. McCarthy taking over after missing his rookie year. The Bears (+500) hired offensive guru Ben Johnson for Caleb Williams but need major O-line improvement.

Value Pick: Green Bay Packers (+240). The Lions are vulnerable after coordinator changes. The Packers looked potent down the stretch last season and made solid additions like G Aaron Banks and CB Nate Hobbs. +240 offers solid value for a team that could easily win this division.

NFC South

Buccaneers: +115
Falcons: +230
Panthers: +425
Saints: +750

Analysis: Often unpredictable. Tampa Bay (+115) is the favorite after winning the division last year, retaining Chris Godwin. Atlanta (+230) has offensive talent but QB questions linger around Michael Penix Jr.. Carolina (+425) hopes Bryce Young improves and defensive additions pay off. New Orleans (+750) hired Kellen Moore as HC but faces a rebuild and cap issues.

Value Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+230). The Bucs are rightful favorites, but +115 isn't exciting. The Falcons have high-end talent on offense (Robinson, London) and added defensively. If Penix Jr. hits the ground running or they get decent QB play, they have the upside to take the division at better than 2-to-1 odds.

NFC West

49ers: +155
Rams: +160
Seahawks: +650
Cardinals: +700

Analysis: Looks like a two-horse race. The 49ers (+155) are narrow favorites despite offseason losses and missing the playoffs. The Rams (+160) kept Matthew Stafford, added Davante Adams, and look poised to challenge. Seattle (+650) is rebuilding with QB Sam Darnold and lost Metcalf. Arizona (+700) added EDGE Josh Sweat but still has holes.

Value Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+160). Given the 49ers' offseason subtractions and the Rams retaining Stafford and adding Adams, the Rams arguably look like the stronger team on paper. Getting them at slightly longer odds than the Niners presents value.

Win Totals: Betting the Over/Under#

The Win Totals market allows you to bet on whether a team will finish with more (Over) or fewer (Under) wins than the line set by the sportsbook. It's a great way to express an opinion on a team's overall season outlook without picking them to win a specific title.

Understanding Over/Under Betting:

If a team's win total is set at 9.5, betting the Over means you need them to win 10 or more games. Betting the Under means you need them to win 9 or fewer games. The ".5" ensures there are no pushes (ties). The odds next to the Over/Under (e.g., o-110 / u-110) indicate the price, similar to spread betting.

Most Interesting Lines:

Houston Texans (9.5 Wins - Over +115 / Under -135): After two 10-win seasons, the Texans' total is 9.5. The Over offers plus money (+115). Key factors include the health of C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins, the integration of new OC Nick Caley, and how a revamped offensive line performs after trading Tunsil and Green. The relatively weak division (Colts, Jags, Titans all at 7.5 or lower) helps the Over case. Betting the Over requires faith that the OL holds up and Stroud returns to his 2023 form.
Las Vegas Raiders (6.5 Wins - Over -140 / Under +120): The Raiders went 4-13 last year but added HC Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith. The market expects improvement, pricing the Over at -140. Can Carroll engineer a quick turnaround similar to Harbaugh with the Chargers or Quinn with the Commanders last season?. Hitting 7 wins seems achievable with the coaching/QB upgrade.
Washington Commanders (9.5 Wins - Over -110 / Under -110): Coming off a 12-win season and NFC Championship appearance, 9.5 feels low. They added Deebo Samuel and Javon Kinlaw. With Jayden Daniels entering Year 2 under OC Kliff Kingsbury and HC Dan Quinn, the potential for 10+ wins is high. The Over looks appealing at standard juice.
Minnesota Vikings (8.5 Wins - Over -135 / Under +115): The Vikings massively outperformed expectations with a 14-3 record in 2024. Now, they turn to second-year QB J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie season. Regression to the mean – the statistical tendency for extreme results to move closer to the average over time – suggests the Vikings are unlikely to replicate their 2024 success, especially with an unproven QB in a tough division. The Under at plus money (+115) holds value.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5 Wins - Over +120 / Under -140): Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. They added DK Metcalf and have an elite defense. The line is 8.5, but the Over is priced at +120. If they get even average QB play, 9 wins is well within reach. Historically, the Steelers have outperformed their preseason win totals more than almost any other team.

Teams with Wide Ranges of Outcomes: Teams undergoing significant changes often have the highest variance. This includes teams with new head coaches (Bears, Patriots, Raiders, Jets, Saints, Cowboys) and/or new starting quarterbacks (Seahawks, Jets, potentially Vikings, Falcons, Broncos). These teams could wildly exceed or fall short of their win totals depending on how quickly the new regimes/players adapt.

Player Awards: Betting on Individual Brilliance#

Beyond team success, you can bet on which players will take home the NFL's top individual honors. These markets often offer longer odds and reward understanding player potential and award narratives.

(Odds primarily from BetMGM, DraftKings, FOX Sports as of early-mid April 2025. Check current lines.)

Most Valuable Player (MVP)

Top Candidates:

Lamar Jackson (BAL): +450 to +550
Josh Allen (BUF): +550 to +600
Patrick Mahomes (KC): +700 to +800
Joe Burrow (CIN): +650 to +750
Jayden Daniels (WAS): +900 to +1100
Jalen Hurts (PHI): +1700 to +2000
Justin Herbert (LAC): +1800 to +2500
C.J. Stroud (HOU): +2200 to +2500
Jordan Love (GB): +2200 to +2500
Jared Goff (DET): +2500 to +3000

Analysis: The top is dominated by elite QBs on contending teams. Jackson (+450) is the favorite, seeking his third MVP. Allen (+600) is the reigning MVP. Mahomes (+700) is always in the mix. Burrow (+750) has huge potential if healthy. Daniels (+1100) has momentum after his ROY season and Washington's aggressive offseason.
Value Pick: Jayden Daniels (+1100). His dual-threat ability produces eye-popping stats, a key factor for voters. With added weapons (Samuel) and protection (Tunsil), and continuity with OC Kingsbury, a Year 2 leap could put him squarely in the MVP conversation at better than 10-to-1 odds. Jalen Hurts at +1700 to +2000 also offers value if the Eagles dominate again.

Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)

Top Candidates:
Saquon Barkley (PHI RB): +500 to +750
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET RB): +950 to +1300
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR): +1000 to +1200
Bijan Robinson (ATL RB): +1200 to +2000
Derrick Henry (BAL RB): +1400 to +1800
Analysis: This award often goes to the best non-QB offensive player. Barkley is the favorite after winning last year. Gibbs exploded when given opportunity last year and could see a larger role. Chase led the league in receiving yards despite the Bengals missing the playoffs.
Value Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000). Gibbs was incredibly efficient last season, leading RBs in EPA despite limited opportunity share. With a new OC in Detroit and David Montgomery potentially less involved, Gibbs could see a massive workload behind a strong offensive line, making +1000 attractive. Nico Collins (HOU WR) at +2200 to +2500 is another intriguing value if he stays healthy and becomes the clear #1 target with Diggs gone and Dell injured.

Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)

Top Candidates:
Aidan Hutchinson (DET EDGE): +650
T.J. Watt (PIT EDGE): +700
Myles Garrett (CLE EDGE): +700
Micah Parsons (DAL EDGE): +700
Will Anderson Jr. (HOU EDGE): +1200
Nick Bosa (SF EDGE): +1600
Maxx Crosby (LV EDGE): +1600
Analysis: Hutchinson is the early favorite after a strong start to 2024 before his injury. Watt, Garrett, and Parsons are perennial contenders. Reigning DPOY Patrick Surtain II (DEN CB) is a longshot at +3000, highlighting the award's bias towards edge rushers; only two DBs have won since 2010.
Value Pick: Will Anderson Jr. (+1200). Anderson won Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2023. Edge rushers often make a significant leap in their second or third seasons as they refine technique and gain experience. Playing on an improving Texans defense, Anderson has the potential to explode and challenge the top tier at double-digit odds.

Offensive & Defensive Rookie of the Year (OROY/DROY)

Note: Official 2025 odds are not widely available yet, as the draft hasn't occurred. Analysis is based on top prospects and projected draft positions.
Likely OROY Candidates: QB Cam Ward (Miami), QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado), WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado - if primarily WR), RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State), WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona), TE Tyler Warren (Penn State).
Likely DROY Candidates: WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado - if primarily CB), EDGE Abdul Carter (Penn State), DT Mason Graham (Michigan), CB Will Johnson (Michigan), EDGE Mike Green (Marshall), DT Walter Nolen (Ole Miss).
Analysis: QBs typically dominate OROY if they start early and perform well (Ward, Sanders). Elite WRs (Hunter, McMillan) or RBs landing in high-volume roles (Jeanty) are also strong contenders. DROY often goes to impactful pass rushers (Carter, Green) or shutdown corners (Hunter, Johnson) who make immediate contributions. Opportunity and scheme fit will be crucial.
Value Pick (Speculative): OROY: Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State). Projected top-10 pick, potentially to Raiders at #6. If he gets lead-back volume immediately, his dynamic talent could produce massive numbers at potentially better odds than the top QBs/WRs. DROY: Will Johnson (CB, Michigan). Projected mid-first rounder. Less hype than Hunter or Carter, but could step into a starting role on a needy team and rack up interceptions/PBUs.

Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY)

Top Candidates:
Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE): +250
Christian McCaffrey (SF RB): +300 to +350
Dak Prescott (DAL QB): +275 to +400
Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB): +500
J.J. McCarthy (MIN QB): +800 to +900
Analysis: Hutchinson is favored returning from a broken leg suffered mid-season when he was a DPOY favorite. McCaffrey missed most of 2024. Prescott and Lawrence aim to bounce back from injury-plagued/underwhelming seasons. McCarthy returns after missing his rookie year. QBs have won this award 7 years straight, and 9 of the last 11 winners missed significant time due to injury the prior year.
Value Pick: Trevor Lawrence (+500). Lawrence fits the narrative well: a former No. 1 pick returning from an injury-marred season. The Jaguars added weapons like rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and traded for Christian Kirk, potentially pursuing more help. If Lawrence returns to his 2022 form and leads the Jags back to contention, he's a prime candidate at better odds than the top three favorites.

Interconnectedness: Notice how these markets influence each other. MVP candidates like Jackson, Allen, and Mahomes lead teams with short Super Bowl odds. OPOY contenders like Barkley (Eagles) and Gibbs (Lions) fuel potent offenses expected to win games. DPOY anchors like Hutchinson (Lions) and Garrett (Browns) elevate their team's defensive prowess, potentially impacting win totals and game totals (unders). Comeback candidates like Lawrence or McCaffrey returning to form directly boosts their team's win potential and futures odds. Discrepancies can signal value – for instance, a team with short Super Bowl odds but no viable award candidates might be overvalued.

Longshot Look: High-Risk, High-Reward Plays#

While betting favorites offers a higher probability of winning, the real thrill (and potential payout) often lies in finding value longshots – bets with odds of +1000 or much longer. These require things to break just right, but history shows it happens more often than you might think.

Potential Longshot Plays for 2025:

Super Bowl - Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000 to +5500): It feels disrespectful to get Mike Tomlin's team at these odds. They boast an elite defense led by T.J. Watt, traded for a potential No. 1 WR in DK Metcalf, and hope for improvement from QB Kenny Pickett. If the offense finds consistency, they could be a dangerous playoff team capable of making a run, offering massive value at 40/1 or longer.
Division - Tennessee Titans to win AFC South (+800): As mentioned earlier, the AFC South feels volatile. Houston (+105) is a beatable favorite. The Titans made numerous solid additions on both lines and at linebacker. If they mesh quickly and the other contenders stumble, 8-to-1 is a handsome price for a division crown.
Award - Michael Penix Jr. MVP (+6000): This requires a leap of faith. Penix needs to win the starting job in Atlanta, stay healthy, and significantly elevate a Falcons team that underwhelmed last year. However, he has talented weapons (London, Robinson), a solid OL, and plays in a weak division. If he puts up big numbers and leads Atlanta to a surprise division title, he'd generate immense buzz, making +6000 odds potentially legendary.

Historical Context - The Improbable Happens:

Don't dismiss longshots entirely. History is littered with teams and players who defied preseason expectations:

1999 St. Louis Rams: Entered the season at +15000 odds after QB Trent Green's injury, only for unknown Kurt Warner to lead the "Greatest Show on Turf" to a Super Bowl victory.
2001 New England Patriots: Started the year at +6000 before another unknown QB, Tom Brady, took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe and launched a dynasty.
2017 Philadelphia Eagles: Began at +4000, lost their MVP-candidate QB late in the season, yet backup Nick Foles led them to their first Super Bowl title.
Recent Runs: The 2021 Cincinnati Bengals reached the Super Bowl despite +8000 preseason conference odds. The 2024 Washington Commanders reached the NFC Championship game after starting with +12000 Super Bowl odds.

These examples prove that massive preseason underdogs can achieve incredible success. While it's statistically unlikely, dedicating a small portion of your betting strategy to well-reasoned longshots offers the potential for enormous returns.

Things to Watch Before Kickoff#

Preseason odds are dynamic and can shift based on new information. Keep an eye on these factors as the season approaches:

Training Camp Battles & Preseason Performance: How are rookies integrating? Are new offensive/defensive systems looking sharp? Are there any surprise players emerging or veterans declining? Preseason games, while often meaningless in outcome, offer glimpses into player form and scheme implementation.
Injuries: This is the biggest variable. A season-ending injury to a star quarterback (like Aaron Rodgers early last season) or another key player can completely derail a team's prospects and send odds tumbling. Monitor injury reports closely, especially during camp and preseason games.
Late Roster Moves: Sometimes valuable players are cut or traded late in the preseason. These additions can provide unexpected boosts to teams.
Market Sentiment & Line Movement: Watch how the odds move. Sometimes, heavy public betting on popular teams or narratives can shift lines without any fundamental changes, potentially creating value on the other side for sharp bettors who trust their analysis over the hype.

Key Dates:

Late July/Early August: Training Camps Open
August: NFL Preseason Games
Late August: Final Roster Cutdowns
Early September (Date TBD): 2025 NFL Season Opener

Conclusion: Building Your Preseason Betting Portfolio#

Navigating the NFL preseason futures market is about balancing projections with potential value. The odds reflect current expectations, but injuries, unexpected player development, and the inherent variance of the NFL mean surprises are inevitable.

Summary of Potential Value Bets:

Super Bowl: Commanders (+1900), Bengals (+1800 to +2200)
Divisions: Steelers (AFC North +600), Titans (AFC South +800), Chargers (AFC West +325), Packers (NFC North +240), Falcons (NFC South +230), Rams (NFC West +160)
Win Totals: Texans O9.5 (+115), Commanders O9.5 (-110), Vikings U8.5 (+115), Steelers O8.5 (+120)
Awards: Daniels MVP (+1100), Gibbs OPOY (+1000), Anderson Jr. DPOY (+1200), Lawrence CPOY (+500)
Longshots: Steelers SB (+5000), Titans Div (+800), Penix MVP (+6000)

Hypothetical $100 Portfolio Allocation:

How might you spread $100 across these markets? It depends on your risk tolerance:

Balanced Approach:
$25 Commanders to win Super Bowl (+1900)
$25 Steelers to win AFC North (+600)
$25 Texans Over 9.5 Wins (+115)
$15 Jayden Daniels MVP (+1100)
$10 Jahmyr Gibbs OPOY (+1000)
Value Hunter Approach:
$20 Rams to win NFC West (+160)
$20 Vikings Under 8.5 Wins (+115)
$20 Trevor Lawrence CPOY (+500)
$15 Will Anderson Jr. DPOY (+1200)
$15 Titans to win AFC South (+800)
$10 Steelers to win Super Bowl (+5000)

Remember, these are just examples. The key is to diversify your investments across different markets and bet types that align with your analysis and risk appetite.

Final Thoughts:

Preseason betting is inherently uncertain. Teams that look great on paper in July can falter due to injuries or poor chemistry, while overlooked teams can surprise. Approach these markets with a clear strategy, focus on identifying odds that seem mispriced relative to potential outcomes, and always bet responsibly within your budget.

What's your favorite preseason future bet? Share your top value pick in the comments below!

(Disclaimer: Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call 1-800-GAMBLER.)

Top Sources:

NFL Preseason Odds 2025: Unlocking Value Before Kickoff